Prediction Finals Factor

 

Finals are very hard to call so I'll do some mini preview's to explain my cases

Saturday 28 April

Division 3 Final

Longford v Wexford

Tasty Fixture of two well organised Leinster sides, really could go either way... Longford have the experience of winning the Division 4 crown last year, but speaking of tasty, the Wexford forward line possessing PJ Banville, Brosnan, Barry and Lyng might prove too much.

dictVer: Wexford

Division 4 final

Fermanagh v Wicklow

Although Fermanagh have been stealing all the headlines, Wicklow will come into this game full of confidence, having finally concentrating in getting out of Division 4, also they are well used to playing in Croke Park should stand to them.

dictVer: Wicklow

Sunday 29 April

Division 1 Final

Mayo v Cork

Mayo in my opinion should never be in the final!!, Kerry should have put them away in the semi but that itself illustrates what this Mayo team have to offer,a never say die attitude and a hunger about them this year.

Although Cork will have a lot of fire power I expect Mayo to come through, they should have beaten them earlier in the year too but they'll make up for it Sunday.

dictVer:Mayo

Division 2 final

Tyrone v Kildare

Mickey Harte has constantly been pushing the boundaries of GAA to a new level since he became Tyrone manager and McGeeney has been doing the same, only as a player with Armagh.

This in effect is the generation game, a game that will be analysed before, during, inbetween and after. Teams will, of all levels will look at this game and see where they can gain an edge for prepping their own team.

I think the loss of Kyle Coney and Marty Penrose up front for Tyrone will present Kildare a great chance to gain revenge for the league opener.

dictVer: Kildare

Talking point: Are all eight managers, in the top 10 in the country? me thinks so!!

last week 4/6

so far I've 68/122

HEYA Kid

Tuesday was Sad Day for all Louth people and GAA folk in general.

We lost one of our own, a true gael.

Charlie gave his life and in fact large portions of his house to Louth GAA! It was there, in the Kit bags, Jerseys and gear, where he fueled the passion he had for the GAA.  

His meticulous attitude and standards he set for himself were second to none, and over the years became folklore around the county.

He was a great example to others and will be sorely missed.

RIP Charlie McAllister

Louth Minors 4W 'was,like....whatever"

Trying to stay ‘hip and with it’ with today’s 18 year olds, I decided not to write a 4W and write one after the game a kinda 4Wwas version and a minor Report all in one.

Louth fans like to dip their feet cautiously in the bath of hot water that is Louth minor teams, and our record in the grade backs up that analogy.

However this set of Louth Minors is the new breed, a product of a well-run under age system, highly organised preparation and coaching.

Also, majority of these lads have success to show for it, numerous of the squad has been involved in the successful Dundalk College’s side this past two years.

So they have the pedigree
Combine that, with the effort put in by Thomas McNamee and his large back room staff
and
you can’t help but feel they are building something special.

Saturday was my chance to see for myself.

WHO was it against: Westmeath
WHAT was it in: Leinster Minor Championship
WHERE was it: Haggardstown
WHEN was it: 3pm Saturday

First impression, OMG, LOL, LMFAO, (sorry couldn’t resist) but seriously what an exhausting warm up! The referee even had to tell the Louth lads to stop!

This highlighted to me, that these lads take instruction well and are mad for ‘ball’.

The warm up must have worked as we started brightly; Quigley and the lively O’Mahony’s man Kilcoyne kicked early scores to give us the lead. 

Both teams settled into it, but a couple of our attacks broke down and we seemed to tense up and when things didn’t go our way we seemed to get nervous.

The things that were going against us: Wind and lack of breaking ball.

This enabled Westmeath to dominate possession, restricting us to play very deep.

On the forty, Darren McMahon, showed no nerves as he keep Louth a float in the first half, winning breaking ball and working across the whole half forward line.

However, Louth never panicked, or succumbed to the pressure, in fact they revelled in it, defending really well, getting men back in an organised fashion, forcing Westmeath to shoot from bad angles,resulting in a high wide count.

Miniature Louth Corner forward, Shane ‘Big’ Mathews, showed the weavery of Lionel Messi to wriggle past a number of Westmeath defenders in a tight situation and still find space to shoot over with his left before half time.

A rare attack and Crucial score as it meant Tommy Carr and his Westmeath charges dominated possession with only a three point lead to show for it.

#Scuuuup

If patience in defence was their first half focus, then it was well vindicated, as they went all-out attack for the second half.

The wind behind them, monstrous Conor Grimes and James Stewart got on top in the middle, Louth were able to find their full forward line that bit easier and the quick ball resulted in the lads edging their way back into it.

The smallest of this full forward line ‘Big’ scored a nice point with his right foot, However it was Kilcoyne, the sharpest of the three inside men, out in front and full of running all afternoon, kicking the first two of his total of four second half points that levelled the game.

#Worldy

Then the goal, ‘Big’ was left isolated inside and a quick through ball found him in space running through on goal from left to right and he finished it well and that was the straw that broke the camels back!

Westmeath found no way through Louth’s defence and didn’t look to want to either, Our backline was very powerful half backs Marks, English and McCann are big men and drove forward when needed and individually Kieran Lenehan at full back impressed me a lot.

Substitute and someone I’ve heard a lot about Cian Doyle, came on and didn’t disappoint, netting an opportunist goal and got on a lot of ball in general, linking up well with fellow O’Connells man Robert Quigley. Should start the next day.

Grimes and late sub Josh Arrowsmith (great name, should be a secret agent or in a band at least) added scores also. Kilcoyne wrapped up his impressive day with his fifth point and that was that.

Things to Expect: Minor Report:

Both teams to meet again (as there is a back door neither team will be eliminated) it still could happen hopefully in the leinster final.

Louth minor team’s are hit and miss and usually naïve-Yes all true but not this team. They are hardworking, selfless and ultra-professional in their approach.

All the things associated with minors was evident, nerves and taking bad options- Yes but this side are well drilled, this allows them to overcome the nerves and never panic. English sat in front of his full back line all evening and Played to a system the whole way through, helping to keep Westmeath scoreless the whole second half.

Louth minors are usually Small and light with no power – wrong apart from Big! (Sorry Shane if you’re reading this) We are physically imposing team all over the pitch, Sure Grimes is one of the biggest eighteen year olds about but the rest of the side holds up. Actually to be fair ‘big’ is can more than handle the physical stuff.

The skill level of the team is quite high defenders are Comfortable on the ball and forward have a lot of scoring potential, and with Cian Doyle & Ciaran Byrne to come back in the future could be bright.

They play their next game, the Quarter final the 19th of May

Prediction Factor Semi's

Ah Division 4, my Saviour throughout the competition but all good things come to an end and coming to the final stages I can see a clean sweep of home wins!!

Cork and Kerry, national league final anyone?

Last week I got 9/16

Overall 64/116

Percentage for the season 55%

Division 1 Semi's

Cork/Down=Cork
Mayo/Kerry=Kerry

Division 4

Fermanagh/Leitrim=Fermanagh
Limerick/Carlow=Limerick
Waterford/London=Waterford
Wicklow/Clare=Wicklow

Two Tribes Go 2 War

Navan, last sunday, wasn't so much a warzone but more like a massacre!

We Know 'our Peter' likes to get  carried away with a win but he took his celebrations to the next level last Sunday 

some could say warlike!

Navan Last Sunday

Platoon!

 It smacked Delight, Childlike Showmanship

  and most importantly Relief.

Louth Championship Draw

Finally after months and months of waitin' and anticipatin' we have our draws

Club players across the land now have something to focus on, management have teams to strategise towards and importantly supporters have something to talk about and look forward to, aswell as dream!

and The draw didn't disappoint! a lot of interesting pairings within the groups across the board.

Majority of groups, have an even spread of talent and competitiveness, which will make for an exciting Championship!

The level of talent in all grades makes it hard to predict an outright winner, particularly intermediate, One thing it does show is how far the county has come, and the level of talent within the county. 

So expect Shocks, drama and plenty of good football this summer!

Avonmore Senior Football Championship

Group 1: Newtown Blues, Kilkerley Emmets, Dundalk Gaels
Group 2: St Marys, Mattock Rangers, Glyde Rangers
Group 3: O'Raghallaighs, Cooley Kickhams, Dundalk Young Irelands
GOD 4: Dreadnots, St Patricks, Naomh Mairtin

Cullen Auto Parts Intermediate Football Championship

Group 1: Naomh Malachi, St Mochtas, Roche Emmets
Group 2: Sean O'Mahonys, Na Piarsaigh, St Fechins
GOD 3: St Josephs, Clan na Gael, Geraldines
Group 4: St Brides, O'Connells, Nh Fionnbarra

Junior Football Championship:

Group 1: Wolfe Tones, Sean McDermotts, Westerns
Group 2: St Nicholas, John Mitchels, Hunterstown Rovers.
Group 3: Dowdallshill, Oliver Plunketts, St Kevins
GOD 4: Stabannon Parnells, Lannleire, Glen Emmets, Annaghminnon Rovers

Avonmore Senior Hurling Championship: 

St Fechins v Mattock Rangers
Nh Moninne v Pearse Og
Knockbridge Bye

Round robin league. The top two sides in the league play in the final. 

GOD=Group of Death

Meath Scorers Chart

Derek Maguire for the first time tops the Album chart from Sunday's Game

But

Ronan Carroll had his best performance in a Louth Shirt Sunday and gets Single of the week with 'team move groove' from the Album 'Blazin' Squad"

Meath NFL

Derek Maguire  2-2

Darren Clarke   0-6 3f 245'

Ronan Carroll   0-3

Declan Byrne     0-1

Adrian Reid       0-1
Paddy Keenan 0-1

NFL ALBUM Chart

(1) Darren Clarke 1-36pt 22f 445
(2)Derek Maguire 2-8pt
(3) Jim McEnaney 9pt
(-) Ronan Carroll 9pt
(5) Paddy Keenan 8pt 1f
(6)Mark Brennan 4pt
(-) Adrian Reid 4pt
(8) Derek Crilly 3pt
(-) Ray Finnegan 3pt
(10) Brian Donnelly 2pt 1F 145'
(-) Andy McDonnell 2pt
(-) Brian White 2pt
(13) Eoin O'Connor 1pt
(-) Gerry Hoey 1 pt
(-) Liam Shevlin 1pt
(-) Aaron Hoey 1pt
(-) Declan Byrne 2pt
(-) Jaime Carr 1pt

We had 18 seperate scorer's and the Division's Top scorer

PREDICTION FACTOR Rd 7

Prediction Factor round 7

Final full week of prediction’s and with relegation and promotion taken into consideration I reckon I have the potential for a full sweep!!

Last week’s interlude 3/5      

Overall 55/100

Sunday 7th April





Division 1

Cork v Dublin= Cork
Kerry v Mayo= Kerry
Donegal v Armagh= Draw
Laois v Down= Down


Division 2

Tyrone v Monaghan=Tyrone
Westmeath v Derry=Derry
Meath vLouth=Louth
Galway v Kildare =Kildare

Division 3

Tipperary v Offaly= Offaly
Longford v Wexford= Longford
Sligo v Roscommon= Roscommon
Cavan v Antrim= Cavan


Division 4  

Leitrim v Waterford=Leitrim
Clare v Kilkenny=Clare
London v Wicklow=Wicklow
Carlow v Fermanagh =Fermanagh

Limerick bye week

Meath 4W

WHO: Meath
WHAT: Round 7 of NFL Division 2 AKA Relegation Showdown
WHERE: Pairc Tailteann, Navan
WHEN: 2.30pm Sunday

So Final weekend in ‘an Uaimh’, and in the back of all our minds we always knew the relegation ‘Great Escape’ was going to come down to this… we knew, they knew and more importantly both sets of players knew it.

Background

Meath as usual, have sucked us in again… perfectly playing the poor mouths role and lowering their expectations as a result.

A string of losses, Big Joe leaves the country, Gilsenan gets shot in the hamstring by a bullock, and whispers of Banty out are getting louder and louder.

When in reality they know that the run-in unrest is irrelevant, that a simple win on Sunday will suffice.

While on merit, we’ve got an air confidence coming into the game, largely on the back of a well-earned point, and due performance in Derry, but this approach by Meath also allows us to get ahead of ourselves.

I think I’ve established that form doesn’t matter with a local derby game like this; it’s all on the day, especially with the heightened stakes of relegation.

The match, if anything, provides perfect Championship preparation.

Key Battles

Meath’s possible team smacks of physicality, right down the spine of the team, Banty has opted for big men. This physical approach will suit our style of play, as we can counteract it with our pace and mobility.

Mickey Burke, will more than likely be given the daunting task of keeping Darren Clarke quiet, top scorer in the Division going into the final game Clarkie will a lot of weight is on his shoulders but the pace of Derek Maguire and accuracy of Jim can cause the Meath defence problems themselves.

Meaths half backline poses a huge threat but like I’ve said here before, with a half forward line of Derek Crilly, Mark Brennan and Adrian Reid. They have the ability to contain them and exploit them going forward also.

With Donnelly out, Fitzer has been spared a tough decision. A hopefully refreshed Paddy Keenan will come in alongside Ronan Carroll. Where, we look to have a certain mobility advantage over a possible Meath midfield pairing of Ward and Walsh.

However, as we all know, going forward and getting a platform hasn’t been a problem with us this year…Defending has.

Which is strange, for a number of reasons.

Our defence as a unit, has not seen much change this season and individually our defenders have played well.

Nevertheless the stats don’t lie. We have a score difference of -19, second worst in the Division and to win on Sunday we’re going to need a huge defensive effort.

Graham Reilly and Seamus Kenny on both wing’s, love nothing more than playing against Louth. Although Gilsenan is a big loss for Meath, Brian Farrell is an equal if not better replacement. Then you have Cian Ward and Stephen Bray, on their day two of the best forwards in Ireland.

So you can see why a huge defensive performance is needed, we need to put our best foot forward in stopping this dangerous set of forwards.

My Match up’s
S Kenny/ Rayzor: Perfect match up, to negate Kenny’s dirty ball winning ability.
S Bray/Decie Byrne: Time for Decie to step up and push Bray away from dangerous area’s.
G Reilly/Shevlin: Liam has the athleticism to counteract Reilly strong running
B Farrell/G Hoey: first game back for Gerry and should have the pace on Farrell
J Queeney/Dessie: Physically match up well
C Ward/J Carr: Our best defender and Meath’s main match winner, Carr needs to start on him.

Conclusion

Whatever the result Division 2 has been one hell of a ride and we’ve improved significantly as a result.

Can we win in Navan…yes 

Unlike Wednesday night we need a good start, it will go a long way in building momentum and getting the confidence going away from home. Lest we forget, Meath have done this before, surviving on the final day, last year in Navan.  They may have pulled it off last year but I don’t think they are going to get another second chance come Sunday, Louth I feel want it that bit more.

Things to expect: A more competitive encounter than Wednesday night, Louth fans to get mini heart attacks with the sight of Louth winning when the fourth official announces how much injury time there is, Possible Banty Bashing or Fitzer lashing,

Expenses? What expenses??

4W Louth/Dublin U21 Final

WHO: Dublin
WHAT: Cadbury’s Leinster Under 21 Final
WHERE: Pairc Tailteann, Navan
WHEN: 7:30pm Tonight

We don’t possess a great record against Dublin at underage level, actually the thoughts of facing Dublin underage has us shuttering at the sight of a kid in a Dublin jersey!

But tonight is different; tonight our lads stand up to these Dublin bullies and take their lunch money for a change! That being the Leinster cup.

Here’s why…

Underlying Motive

Let me cast you back to a minor match in Drogheda, April 2009 to be exact, between Dublin and Louth, first round of the Leinster Minor championship.


On that day, tonight’s group of Louth players were beaten 4-15 to 5 points but more importantly demoralised after the performance they gave. The Dublin players may have forgotten, but I reckon the Louth players haven’t!

The most disappointing thing about that particular game for Louth fans was the high expectations we had for that team.
Obviously the group has since lived up to that potential and now the lads get to prove it even further tonight, with a revenge victory.

Strength’s

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not naive enough to think just because they beat hammered us before we’ll have enough motivation from that game alone to win.
This Dublin team poses a daunting challenge and has gotten even stronger since that minor match, having wiped all before them so far.


But what I can tell you is, the expectancy level on our lads has been lowered and we have gotten significantly stronger since that day. Louth have 5 players from that starting minor team that will start tonight, that was due to, the then management preference for size.

Dublin might expect our lads to be the same standard and hopefully become complacent but the opposite is now the case, this Louth team is highly mobile and comfortable with the ball across the board.

This will allow us to cope with Dublin’s speed and pace all over the pitch and hopefully shock them.

That, as well as numerous other positive factors

We have three win’s under our belts, We’ve improved as we’ve gone on in the competition, We’ve belief from our management playing experience, We’ve got that bit of luck along the way (Offaly 20m free misses in the semi), and importantly We have played in Navan under lights and won already this year.

These factors are convincing me that we can pull off the shock.

Management

I mentioned management and both sets of teams have impressive backroom credentials. Jim Gavin has been at the helm a number of years now and has been quite successful with Dublin.

but

Louth, also have formed a formidable coaching package, Colin Kelly with his no nonsense approach and high standards sets the tone, Colm Nally is carving himself out to be one of the country’s yes country finest coaches and Christy Grimes brings his modern day playing experience as well as insatiable winning attitude.

However Finals are there to be won, as well as a revenge mission and numerous positive playing factors there is a simple game of football to be played.

Let’s, as Louth fans, dip into that eternal pit of hope once again…

Because…

We, like the lads tonight, have no fear, and nothing to lose…

Things to expect: A Shock…that is all

Louth's Most Significant WeeK

‘One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind’

This week is our landing on the moon and both landings can happen, ironically… in Navan!

Wednesday night our Under 21’s face a formidable Dublin outfit in our first Leinster final at that grade since 1996, 16 years ago!

And

Sunday we face the Royals in a relegation shoot-out!
Whoever loses, goes down to the quagmire that is Division 3.

Two win’s in Navan Keeps us up and set us up for the future and boosts a future Manager’s credentials?
Apart from keeping us up and winning some rare silverware at underage.

How is it significant???

Firstly with this senior group, they have revelled in playing against the big boys. In the past few months we have seen improvements in players speed, fitness and skill level. Even in our losses we displayed football lightyears ahead of what we played last year…even in all our wins combined!

You see, Division 2 brings out that focus and sharpness that Division 3 can’t match…Our players are stimulated at this level, realising that your sloppy mistakes won’t slide and that you will be punished has made them better players individually and collectively as a squad.

The benefits are massively significant, sure we now play better football and our players are improved but we set a higher standard as a result.

For the future of Louth football to improve, We need to hang in there at this level and not allow our standards to slip.

Secondly a win on Wednesday night will give, not only the players and management involved a boost but every underage player behind them belief, that they can do it and aspire to achieve success at their age group.

Not only does it instil that belief but it also sets the standards and an expectancy level on our underage,

For the county board, the win at underage would see a significant return on their investment. A lot of time and money has gone into these squads this year and over the past few years. A win will make sure that investment will not cease.

Negatively

Lose both and not only do we go down to Division 3, and our underage take’s another knock, but our standards for the future slip and the next generation of Louth players belief system is tarnished.

Let’s play Devil’s advocate and ask.

Which, if you had to choose would be a more significant win?

On an optimistic Tuesday before the first  landing  I’ll say, Hopefully both…